{ "generated_at": "2026-05-30T15:31:33+08:00", "sources": { "latest_data_date": "2026-05-29", "rotation_chart": "assets/rotation-1780125615.png", "market_universe": "AI infrastructure, AI applications, Physical AI, power and energy chains" }, "signal": { "title": "轮动分化", "title_en": "Rotation remains mixed", "body": "硬件 20 日相对软件 +3.3%；1 日相对差 -2.1%。", "body_en": "Hardware 20-day return versus software: +3.3%; 1-day spread: -2.1%.", "spread_20": 0.0334563475764206, "spread_1": -0.021495489104963898 }, "basket": [ { "basket": "hardware_infra", "name_count": 40, "today_quote_ratio": 1.0, "mean_return_1d": -0.0231115527, "advancing_ratio_1d": 0.35, "mean_return_20d": 0.0845227703, "mean_return_60d": 0.4717482869, "median_volume_ratio_20d_vs_prev60d": 1.1655697956 }, { "basket": "software_model_app", "name_count": 16, "today_quote_ratio": 1.0, "mean_return_1d": -0.0016160636, "advancing_ratio_1d": 0.4375, "mean_return_20d": 0.0510664228, "mean_return_60d": 0.1001969683, 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0.6856467525, "last_bar_date": "2026-05-29", "quote_quality_status": "ok", "quote_quality_reason": "passed quote quality checks" }, { "ticker": "06682.HK", "name": "第四范式", "basket": "software_model_app", "segment": "enterprise AI platform/agent", "return_1d": 0.0403785239, "return_20d": -0.0636002596, "volume_shock_vs_20d": 1.275083207, "last_bar_date": "2026-05-29", "quote_quality_status": "ok", "quote_quality_reason": "passed quote quality checks" }, { "ticker": "8271.TW", "name": "Apacer", "basket": "hardware_infra", "segment": "Storage / Industrial SSD/modules", "return_1d": 0.0358649789, "return_20d": 0.1159090909, "volume_shock_vs_20d": 1.3581807301, "last_bar_date": "2026-05-29", "quote_quality_status": "ok", "quote_quality_reason": "passed quote quality checks" } ], "volume": [ { "ticker": "6223.TW", "name": "MPI", "basket": "hardware_infra", "segment": "Advanced packaging/test / Probe cards", "return_1d": 0.0076077768, "return_20d": 0.2101522843, "volume_shock_vs_20d": 4.5033634575, "last_bar_date": "2026-05-29", "quote_quality_status": "ok", "quote_quality_reason": "passed quote quality checks" }, { "ticker": "FN", "name": "Fabrinet", "basket": "hardware_infra", "segment": "Optical/network / Optical module manufacturing", "return_1d": -0.0206452758, "return_20d": -0.0428840651, "volume_shock_vs_20d": 3.3435215179, "last_bar_date": "2026-05-29", "quote_quality_status": "ok", "quote_quality_reason": "passed quote quality checks" }, { "ticker": "01357.HK", "name": "美图公司", "basket": "software_model_app", "segment": "AI image/video/design application", "return_1d": -0.0332594726, "return_20d": 0.0186915388, "volume_shock_vs_20d": 2.9414489173, "last_bar_date": "2026-05-29", "quote_quality_status": "ok", "quote_quality_reason": "passed quote quality checks" }, { "ticker": "03888.HK", "name": "金山软件", "basket": "software_model_app", "segment": "WPS AI + office productivity + games", "return_1d": -0.0139664594, "return_20d": -0.082322354, "volume_shock_vs_20d": 2.1853133099, "last_bar_date": "2026-05-29", "quote_quality_status": "ok", "quote_quality_reason": "passed quote quality checks" }, { "ticker": "02513.HK", "name": "智谱/Z.ai", "basket": "software_model_app", "segment": "foundation model/API/enterprise agent", "return_1d": -0.0142150803, "return_20d": 0.9534598898, "volume_shock_vs_20d": 2.1623290143, "last_bar_date": "2026-05-29", "quote_quality_status": "warning", "quote_quality_reason": "large 20D move 95.3%; check compounding/split/adjustment" } ], "freshness_alerts": [ { "source_type": "market_quote_quality", "source": "6239.TW", "status": "warning", "severity": "warning", "reason": "large 20D move 86.7%; check compounding/split/adjustment", "observed_value": "6239.TW" }, { "source_type": "market_quote_quality", "source": "380540.KQ", "status": "warning", "severity": "warning", "reason": "large 1D move -50.0%; check split/adjustment and intraday timing", "observed_value": "380540.KQ" }, { "source_type": "market_quote_quality", "source": "02513.HK", "status": "warning", "severity": "warning", "reason": "large 20D move 95.3%; check compounding/split/adjustment", "observed_value": "2513.HK" } ], "chains": [ { "title": "HBM / Storage", "note": "HBM、server DRAM、eSSD、QLC、nearline HDD", "note_en": "HBM, server DRAM, eSSD, QLC and nearline HDD", "count": 1, "score": 20.33 }, { "title": "PCB / Packaging", "note": "AI PCB、ABF、TCB、probe/test", "note_en": "AI PCB, ABF substrates, TCB, probe and test", "count": 6, "score": 18.35833333333333 }, { "title": "Optical / Interconnect", "note": "光模块、DSP、InP、CPO、连接器、铜缆", "note_en": "Optical modules, DSP, InP, CPO, connectors and copper links", "count": 3, "score": 18.68 }, { "title": "Power / Cooling", "note": "变压器、配电、UPS、液冷、工程能力", "note_en": "Transformers, power distribution, UPS, liquid cooling and data-center engineering", "count": 8, "score": 18.56875 }, { "title": "Physical AI", "note": "机器人、执行器、电机、减速器、传感器、边缘算力", "note_en": "Robotics, actuators, motors, reducers, sensors and edge compute", "count": 0, "score": null }, { "title": "AI Apps / Models", "note": "AI 应用、模型、平台、云收入", "note_en": "AI applications, models, platforms and cloud revenue", "count": 16, "score": 0.05106642275788487 } ], "market_regime": { "generated_at": "2026-05-30T12:52:35+08:00", "panic_score": 0.0, "regime_state": "normal", "vix_level": 15.32, "semi_drawdown_60d": -0.0053, "hardware_software_spread_20d": 0.0335 }, "sector_flow": [ { "segment": "volatility", "proxy_ticker": "^VIX", "proxy_name": "CBOE VIX", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T15:00:00+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0266836139, "return_20d": -0.0982931194, "return_60d": -0.3549473813, "drawdown_60d": -0.5066022521, "volume_ratio": 0.0, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.2039779793, "flow_signal": "deleveraging", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "volatility", "proxy_ticker": "^VXN", "proxy_name": "Nasdaq volatility", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T21:30:00+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0148342125, "return_20d": 0.0362551159, "return_60d": -0.0920788435, "drawdown_60d": -0.3267740218, "volume_ratio": 0.0, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.069429744, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "growth_beta", "proxy_ticker": "QQQ", "proxy_name": "Nasdaq 100 ETF", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T21:30:00+08:00", "return_1d": 0.0036840974, "return_20d": 0.1056848599, "return_60d": 0.2088579575, "drawdown_60d": 0.0, "volume_ratio": 1.0050456901, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": 0.0, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "semiconductor", "proxy_ticker": "SMH", "proxy_name": "Semiconductor ETF", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T21:30:00+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0015004658, "return_20d": 0.1819742486, "return_60d": 0.5007015372, "drawdown_60d": -0.0053310225, "volume_ratio": 0.8221376814, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": 0.0762893887, "flow_signal": "relative_strength", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "semiconductor", "proxy_ticker": "SOXX", "proxy_name": "iShares Semiconductor ETF", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T21:30:00+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0006847659, "return_20d": 0.2332697947, "return_60d": 0.6662177281, "drawdown_60d": -0.0017716671, "volume_ratio": 0.9482548491, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": 0.1275849348, "flow_signal": "relative_strength", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "credit", "proxy_ticker": "HYG", "proxy_name": "High-yield credit ETF", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T21:30:00+08:00", "return_1d": 0.0009970609, "return_20d": -0.0008708596, "return_60d": -0.0011194523, "drawdown_60d": -0.0042157962, "volume_ratio": 1.0799606005, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.1065557195, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "duration", "proxy_ticker": "TLT", "proxy_name": "Long-duration Treasury ETF", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T21:30:00+08:00", "return_1d": 0.0002333132, "return_20d": 0.0016351248, "return_60d": -0.0380257917, "drawdown_60d": -0.0388882785, "volume_ratio": 1.2137330736, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.1040497351, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "us_rates", "proxy_ticker": "^TNX", "proxy_name": "US 10Y Treasury yield", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T20:20:00+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0004489013, "return_20d": 0.0143508438, "return_60d": 0.0914216059, "drawdown_60d": -0.0458538154, "volume_ratio": 0.0, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.0913340162, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "oil", "proxy_ticker": "CL=F", "proxy_name": "WTI crude oil", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T12:00:00+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0173228446, "return_20d": -0.1685542889, "return_60d": 0.1701044244, "drawdown_60d": -0.2265603987, "volume_ratio": 0.9411936583, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.2742391488, "flow_signal": "deleveraging", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "copper", "proxy_ticker": "HG=F", "proxy_name": "Copper futures", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T12:00:00+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0057066882, "return_20d": 0.0731521776, "return_60d": 0.0861656551, "drawdown_60d": -0.0415944578, "volume_ratio": 2.6156171285, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.0325326823, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "gold", "proxy_ticker": "GC=F", "proxy_name": "Gold futures", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T12:00:00+08:00", "return_1d": 0.0136021599, "return_20d": -0.0117451173, "return_60d": -0.1093121702, "drawdown_60d": -0.1279614835, "volume_ratio": 68.1618257261, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.1174299773, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "usd", "proxy_ticker": "DX-Y.NYB", "proxy_name": "US Dollar Index", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T12:00:00+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0011108158, "return_20d": 0.0084624981, "return_60d": 0.0014175056, "drawdown_60d": -0.0159187985, "volume_ratio": 0.0, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.0972223618, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "fx_yen", "proxy_ticker": "JPY=X", "proxy_name": "USD/JPY", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:21:11+08:00", "return_1d": -9.41759e-05, "return_20d": 0.0153590907, "return_60d": 0.0052264003, "drawdown_60d": -0.0061097438, "volume_ratio": 0.0, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.0903257692, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "fx_cnh", "proxy_ticker": "CNH=X", "proxy_name": "USD/CNH", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T04:59:44+08:00", "return_1d": 0.0, "return_20d": 0.0, "return_60d": 0.0, "drawdown_60d": 0.0, "volume_ratio": 0.0, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.1056848599, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "oil_gold_ratio", "proxy_ticker": "CL=F/GC=F", "proxy_name": "Oil / gold ratio", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:52:35+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0305099937, "return_20d": -0.1586728097, "return_60d": 0.0, "drawdown_60d": -0.199018724, "volume_ratio": 0.0, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.2643576696, "flow_signal": "deleveraging", "source": "Derived from Yahoo Finance chart proxies" }, { "segment": "copper_gold_ratio", "proxy_ticker": "HG=F/GC=F", "proxy_name": "Copper / gold ratio", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:52:35+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0190497351, "return_20d": 0.0859063087, "return_60d": 0.0, "drawdown_60d": -0.0190497351, "volume_ratio": 0.0, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.0197785512, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Derived from Yahoo Finance chart proxies" }, { "segment": "hardware_infra", "proxy_ticker": null, "proxy_name": "equal-weight basket", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:52:35+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0231115527, "return_20d": 0.0845227703, "return_60d": 0.4717482869, "drawdown_60d": null, "volume_ratio": 1.1655697956, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.0211620896, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "AI basket price-volume monitor" }, { "segment": "software_model_app", "proxy_ticker": null, "proxy_name": "equal-weight basket", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:52:35+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0016160636, "return_20d": 0.0510664228, "return_60d": 0.1001969683, "drawdown_60d": null, "volume_ratio": 1.0597161926, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.0546184372, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "AI basket price-volume monitor" } ], "macro_regime": [ { "indicator": "CBOE VIX", "proxy_ticker": "^VIX", "proxy_name": "CBOE VIX", "segment": "volatility", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T15:00:00+08:00", "latest_value": 15.3199996948, "unit": "index", "return_1d": -0.0266836139, "return_20d": -0.0982931194, "return_60d": -0.3549473813, "drawdown_60d": -0.5066022521, "trend_points": "[18.87,19.5,18.92,19.31,18.71,18.02,17.83,18.81,16.89,16.99,18.29,17.38,17.39,17.08,17.19,18.38,17.99,17.87,17.26,18.43,17.82,18.06,17.44,16.76,16.7,16.59,17.01,16.29,15.74,15.32]", "level_state": "calm", "benchmark": "VIX: <16 calm; 16-20 watch; 20-25 elevated; 25-30 high stress; >=30 panic.", "decision_use": "Risk-budget and dip-window gate; high VIX can create better entry windows only when fundamentals remain intact.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "Nasdaq volatility", "proxy_ticker": "^VXN", "proxy_name": "Nasdaq volatility", "segment": "volatility", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T21:30:00+08:00", "latest_value": 22.5799999237, "unit": "index", "return_1d": -0.0148342125, "return_20d": 0.0362551159, "return_60d": -0.0920788435, "drawdown_60d": -0.3267740218, "trend_points": "[21.57,22.93,23.8,23.58,23.32,23.38,23.08,23.24,23.76,21.79,21.92,23.04,22.46,23.58,23.15,23.76,24.74,24.13,24.59,24.08,25.33,24.21,24.09,23.71,22.74,22.82,23.9,23.39,22.92,22.58]", "level_state": "watch", "benchmark": "Nasdaq volatility: <20 calm; 20-25 watch; 25-30 elevated; 30-35 high stress; >=35 panic.", "decision_use": "Macro context for risk budget, timing and supply-chain cost pressure; not standalone security selection.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "US 10Y Treasury yield", "proxy_ticker": "^TNX", "proxy_name": "US 10Y Treasury yield", "segment": "us_rates", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T20:20:00+08:00", "latest_value": 4.4530000687, "unit": "%", "return_1d": -0.0004489013, "return_20d": 0.0143508438, "return_60d": 0.0914216059, "drawdown_60d": -0.0458538154, "trend_points": "[4.246,4.25,4.292,4.294,4.323,4.31,4.336,4.354,4.418,4.39,4.378,4.446,4.416,4.356,4.392,4.364,4.41,4.463,4.481,4.461,4.595,4.623,4.667,4.572,4.586,4.558,4.493,4.481,4.455,4.453]", "level_state": "valuation_pressure", "benchmark": "US 10Y yield: <3.5% supportive; 3.5-4.25% neutral; 4.25-4.75% valuation pressure; >=4.75% high-rate pressure.", "decision_use": "Duration and capex-financing pressure proxy for AI infrastructure and long-duration growth assets.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "Long-duration Treasury ETF", "proxy_ticker": "TLT", "proxy_name": "Long-duration Treasury ETF", "segment": "duration", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T21:30:00+08:00", "latest_value": 85.7600021362, "unit": "USD", "return_1d": 0.0002333132, "return_20d": 0.0016351248, "return_60d": -0.0380257917, "drawdown_60d": -0.0388882785, "trend_points": "[87.07,87.05,86.57,86.74,86.55,86.71,86.28,86.37,85.7,85.62,85.61,84.96,85.43,86.08,85.65,86.08,85.56,84.99,84.8,84.92,83.66,83.56,83.02,83.91,84.22,84.68,85.1,85.3,85.74,85.76]", "level_state": "neutral", "benchmark": "TLT 20D: >+5% duration relief; -5% to +5% neutral; <-5% rate-pressure selloff.", "decision_use": "Macro context for risk budget, timing and supply-chain cost pressure; not standalone security selection.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "High-yield credit ETF", "proxy_ticker": "HYG", "proxy_name": "High-yield credit ETF", "segment": "credit", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T21:30:00+08:00", "latest_value": 80.3099975586, "unit": "USD", "return_1d": 0.0009970609, "return_20d": -0.0008708596, "return_60d": -0.0011194523, "drawdown_60d": -0.0042157962, "trend_points": "[80.65,80.58,80.37,80.5,80.37,80.48,80.51,80.4,80.13,80.38,80.06,79.8,79.92,80.16,79.86,80.14,79.98,79.87,79.91,79.85,79.46,79.54,79.35,79.86,79.9,79.91,80.18,80.13,80.23,80.31]", "level_state": "neutral", "benchmark": "HYG 20D: >+1% credit supportive; -1.5% to +1% neutral; -3% to -1.5% watch; <-3% credit stress.", "decision_use": "Macro context for risk budget, timing and supply-chain cost pressure; not standalone security selection.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "WTI crude oil", "proxy_ticker": "CL=F", "proxy_name": "WTI crude oil", "segment": "oil", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T12:00:00+08:00", "latest_value": 87.3600006104, "unit": "USD/bbl", "return_1d": -0.0173228446, "return_20d": -0.1685542889, "return_60d": 0.1701044244, "drawdown_60d": -0.2265603987, "trend_points": "[83.85,89.61,92.13,92.96,95.85,94.4,96.37,99.93,106.88,105.07,101.94,106.42,102.27,95.08,94.81,95.42,98.07,102.18,101.02,101.17,105.42,108.66,107.77,98.26,96.35,96.6,93.89,88.68,88.9,87.36]", "level_state": "demand_or_inflation_relief", "benchmark": "WTI: <$65 demand/inflation relief; $65-90 neutral band; >$90 energy-cost/geopolitical pressure. 20D +/-8% marks fast move.", "decision_use": "Energy input, inflation and geopolitical stress proxy for data-center power/cooling cost assumptions.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "Copper futures", "proxy_ticker": "HG=F", "proxy_name": "Copper futures", "segment": "copper", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T12:00:00+08:00", "latest_value": 6.3594999313, "unit": "USD/lb", "return_1d": -0.0057066882, "return_20d": 0.0731521776, "return_60d": 0.0861656551, "drawdown_60d": -0.0415944578, "trend_points": "[6.1035,6.036,6.0015,6.12,6.0755,6.0235,6.018,5.9145,5.8785,5.926,5.932,5.795,5.943,6.1365,6.1275,6.249,6.4135,6.485,6.6355,6.5675,6.2515,6.272,6.165,6.2905,6.257,6.342,6.361,6.305,6.396,6.3595]", "level_state": "neutral", "benchmark": "Copper 20D: >+8% industrial demand/cost pressure; -8% to +8% neutral; <-8% industrial demand warning.", "decision_use": "Grid, cable, transformer and industrial demand proxy; validate against order books and margins.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "Gold futures", "proxy_ticker": "GC=F", "proxy_name": "Gold futures", "segment": "gold", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T12:00:00+08:00", "latest_value": 4560.5, "unit": "USD/oz", "return_1d": 0.0136021599, "return_20d": -0.0117451173, "return_60d": -0.1093121702, "drawdown_60d": -0.1279614835, "trend_points": "[4857.6001,4806.6001,4698.3999,4732.5,4705.1001,4722.2998,4675.3999,4591.5,4545.2002,4614.7002,4629.8999,4519.5,4555.7998,4681.8999,4699.7998,4720.3999,4718.7002,4677.6001,4697.7002,4678.1001,4555.7998,4552.5,4506.2998,4531.2998,4539.7998,4521.0,4500.3999,4447.5,4499.2998,4560.5]", "level_state": "neutral", "benchmark": "Gold 20D: >+5% defensive/real-rate hedge demand; -5% to +5% neutral; <-5% risk-on or real-rate pressure.", "decision_use": "Macro context for risk budget, timing and supply-chain cost pressure; not standalone security selection.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "Oil / gold ratio", "proxy_ticker": "CL=F/GC=F", "proxy_name": "Oil / gold ratio", "segment": "oil_gold_ratio", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:52:35+08:00", "latest_value": 0.0191557943, "unit": "ratio", "return_1d": -0.0305099937, "return_20d": -0.1586728097, "return_60d": 0.0, "drawdown_60d": -0.199018724, "trend_points": "[0.017262,0.018643,0.019609,0.019643,0.020372,0.01999,0.020612,0.021764,0.023515,0.022769,0.022018,0.023547,0.022448,0.020308,0.020173,0.020214,0.020783,0.021845,0.021504,0.021626,0.02314,0.023868,0.023915,0.021685,0.021223,0.021367,0.020863,0.019939,0.019759,0.019156]", "level_state": "risk_off_or_growth_scare", "benchmark": "Oil/gold ratio: rising 20D >+5% implies oil/inflation pressure; falling <-5% implies defensive/risk-off tilt.", "decision_use": "Macro context for risk budget, timing and supply-chain cost pressure; not standalone security selection.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Derived from Yahoo Finance chart proxies" }, { "indicator": "Copper / gold ratio", "proxy_ticker": "HG=F/GC=F", "proxy_name": "Copper / gold ratio", "segment": "copper_gold_ratio", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:52:35+08:00", "latest_value": 0.0013944743, "unit": "ratio", "return_1d": -0.0190497351, "return_20d": 0.0859063087, "return_60d": 0.0, "drawdown_60d": -0.0190497351, "trend_points": "[0.001256,0.001256,0.001277,0.001293,0.001291,0.001276,0.001287,0.001288,0.001293,0.001284,0.001281,0.001282,0.001304,0.001311,0.001304,0.001324,0.001359,0.001386,0.001412,0.001404,0.001372,0.001378,0.001368,0.001388,0.001378,0.001403,0.001413,0.001418,0.001422,0.001394]", "level_state": "pro_growth_confirmation", "benchmark": "Copper/gold ratio: rising 20D >+5% confirms cyclical/pro-growth risk appetite; falling <-5% flags industrial weakness or risk-off.", "decision_use": "Macro context for risk budget, timing and supply-chain cost pressure; not standalone security selection.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Derived from Yahoo Finance chart proxies" }, { "indicator": "US Dollar Index", "proxy_ticker": "DX-Y.NYB", "proxy_name": "US Dollar Index", "segment": "usd", "timestamp": "2026-05-29T12:00:00+08:00", "latest_value": 98.9100036621, "unit": "index", "return_1d": -0.0011108158, "return_20d": 0.0084624981, "return_60d": 0.0014175056, "drawdown_60d": -0.0159187985, "trend_points": "[98.1,98.05,98.41,98.59,98.8,98.51,98.48,98.62,98.92,98.08,98.21,98.47,98.48,98.02,98.25,97.84,97.94,98.29,98.48,98.88,99.27,98.97,99.3,99.11,99.19,99.32,99.17,99.21,99.02,98.91]", "level_state": "easier_dollar", "benchmark": "DXY: <100 easier dollar; 100-105 neutral; >105 strong-dollar pressure. 20D +3% marks fast dollar squeeze.", "decision_use": "FX and global liquidity proxy, especially for Asian suppliers and EM demand.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "USD/JPY", "proxy_ticker": "JPY=X", "proxy_name": "USD/JPY", "segment": "fx_yen", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:21:11+08:00", "latest_value": 159.2550048828, "unit": "JPY", "return_1d": -9.41759e-05, "return_20d": 0.0153590907, "return_60d": 0.0052264003, "drawdown_60d": -0.0061097438, "trend_points": "[158.844,159.373,159.488,159.747,159.576,159.357,159.552,160.184,156.978,156.846,157.194,157.677,156.508,156.829,156.858,157.231,157.671,157.851,158.382,158.844,158.861,159.035,158.888,159.018,158.946,158.954,159.243,159.568,159.27,159.255]", "level_state": "yen_weakness_pressure", "benchmark": "USD/JPY: <140 yen strength; 140-155 neutral/watch; >155 yen-weakness and Japan input-cost pressure.", "decision_use": "Macro context for risk budget, timing and supply-chain cost pressure; not standalone security selection.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "USD/CNH", "proxy_ticker": "CNH=X", "proxy_name": "USD/CNH", "segment": "fx_cnh", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T04:59:44+08:00", "latest_value": 6.7627801895, "unit": "CNH", "return_1d": 0.0, "return_20d": 0.0, "return_60d": 0.0, "drawdown_60d": 0.0, "trend_points": "[6.7628]", "level_state": "easier_rmb", "benchmark": "USD/CNH: <7.00 easier RMB; 7.00-7.20 neutral; 7.20-7.30 watch; >7.30 China FX pressure.", "decision_use": "Macro context for risk budget, timing and supply-chain cost pressure; not standalone security selection.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" } ], "research_policy": [], "source_quality": [ { "source": "Market price and volume snapshots", "status": "loaded", "cost_tier": "free_public", "freshness": "delayed_or_market_dependent", "decision_use": "price_volume_proxy", "limitation": "Price and volume indicate market behavior, not fundamental proof or true net fund flow.", "required_corroboration": "Check filings, earnings calls, orders, valuation and liquidity." }, { "source": "Market regime and sector-flow proxies", "status": "loaded", "cost_tier": "free_public", "freshness": "delayed_or_market_dependent", "decision_use": "market_regime_and_dip_buy_timing_proxy", "limitation": "This is not exchange-confirmed net fund flow and not standalone buy advice.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm primary evidence, valuation, liquidity, earnings revisions and position crowding." }, { "source": "Company filings, IR and earnings calls", "status": "required_for_validation", "cost_tier": "free_public", "freshness": "issuer_reported", "decision_use": "primary_evidence", "limitation": "Primary disclosures can lag real-time supply-demand changes and may omit customer-specific detail.", "required_corroboration": "Cross-check orders, lead times, ASP, capacity, margins and channel data." } ], "validation_lanes": [ { "label": "信号留痕", "label_en": "Signal ledger", "value": "每日记录", "value_en": "Daily record", "detail": "每次日报固定记录信号标题、数据日、篮子表现、量能和下一证据，避免事后解释。", "detail_en": "Every brief records the signal title, data date, basket behavior, volume and next evidence to avoid post-hoc narratives." }, { "label": "结果窗口", "label_en": "Outcome windows", "value": "7 / 20 / 60D", "value_en": "7 / 20 / 60D", "detail": "按发出信号后的固定窗口复盘，不用单日涨跌替代有效性判断。", "detail_en": "Review fixed windows after each signal rather than judging validity by a single trading day." }, { "label": "覆盖范围", "label_en": "Coverage", "value": "56 names", "value_en": "56 names", "detail": "公开市场篮子与 18 个二阶瓶颈候选池持续更新。", "detail_en": "Public-market baskets and 18 second-order bottleneck candidates are updated continuously." }, { "label": "读者反馈", "label_en": "Reader feedback", "value": "打开 / 回复 / 转发", "value_en": "Open / reply / forward", "detail": "把读者提出的问题、补充证据和反证纳入下一期简报，持续提高覆盖质量。", "detail_en": "Reader questions, added evidence and counterpoints feed into later briefs to improve coverage quality." } ], "referral_rewards": [ { "level": "邀请 3 位确认订阅", "level_en": "3 confirmed referrals", "title": "解锁一篇深度报告", "title_en": "Unlock one deep-dive report", "detail": "邀请确认订阅后，可阅读一篇完整专题研究，包含来源、图表和反证清单。", "detail_en": "Confirmed referrals unlock one full thematic research note with sources, charts and counter-evidence." }, { "level": "邀请 5 位确认订阅", "level_en": "5 confirmed referrals", "title": "提前看专题研究池", "title_en": "Preview thematic research pools", "detail": "开放某个链条的扩展研究池、反证清单和待验证公司列表。", "detail_en": "Open the extended research pool, counter-evidence checklist and companies to verify for a selected chain." }, { "level": "邀请 10 位确认订阅", "level_en": "10 confirmed referrals", "title": "Founder research circle", "title_en": "Founder research circle", "detail": "进入小范围研究讨论，优先提交问题、线索和反证，不提供个性化交易指令。", "detail_en": "Join a small research discussion group to submit questions, leads and counter-evidence. No personalized trading instructions." } ], "updates": [ { "layer": "Market Data", "name": "行情与轮动", "name_en": "Market and rotation", "cadence": "工作日盘中", "cadence_en": "Intraday on trading days", "output": "涨跌、成交量冲击、上涨广度、跨市场数据新鲜度", "output_en": "Returns, volume shocks, market breadth and cross-market data freshness" }, { "layer": "Industry Evidence", "name": "产业链证据", "name_en": "Supply-chain evidence", "cadence": "每周多次", "cadence_en": "Multiple times per week", "output": "公司公告、业绩会、订单、产能、第三方产业数据", "output_en": "Company filings, earnings calls, orders, capacity and third-party industry data" }, { "layer": "Community", "name": "舆论扩散", "name_en": "Narrative diffusion", "cadence": "工作日收盘后", "cadence_en": "After market close on trading days", "output": "社区热度、叙事扩散、早期/主流/拥挤/过热状态", "output_en": "Community heat, narrative diffusion and early/mainstream/crowded/overheated states" }, { "layer": "Institutional", "name": "机构与 NVIDIA 动向", "name_en": "Institutions and NVIDIA activity", "cadence": "每周", "cadence_en": "Weekly", "output": "13F/ETF 变化、NVIDIA 投资/合作、Physical AI 生态信号", "output_en": "13F/ETF changes, NVIDIA investments and partnerships, Physical AI ecosystem signals" }, { "layer": "Derivatives", "name": "期权异动与预测市场", "name_en": "Options flow and prediction markets", "cadence": "工作日盘中 / 每日", "cadence_en": "Intraday on trading days / daily", "output": "异常期权成交、成交量/OI、隐波、Polymarket 概率变化和事件热度", "output_en": "Unusual options flow, volume/OI, IV, Polymarket probability changes and event heat" }, { "layer": "Publishing", "name": "研究报告与告警", "name_en": "Research publishing and alerts", "cadence": "日报 / 周报 / 触发式", "cadence_en": "Daily / weekly / trigger-based", "output": "Web dashboard、邮件摘要、IM 推送、Webhook 告警", "output_en": "Web dashboard, email digest, IM push and webhook alerts" } ] }